I recently conducted a mini survey on peoples perception of Kenya and its future. Below is the email I sent out, followed by the responses I received.
IS KENYA'S GROWTH SUSTAINABLE?
Over the past four years Kenya's economic growth has continued to exceed expectations, surging ahead at an annual rate of more than 4%. Additionally, Kenya's recent Vision 2030 predicts that 10% percent annual growth will be achieved in the coming years. Do you think this is an achievable rate?
Have the dividends been notable so far, in terms of declines in poverty and increases in living standards? What about better governance? Corruption? What are the biggest worries for the near future?
What are the real prospects for Kenya's economy, and can growth continue in a balanced and sustainable way? How? What must Kenya do right? What in your opinion is it doing wrong?
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Vision 2030 is realistic! (the only optimisitc response!)
This administration has done a great deal for the economy! The only thing is we are yet to see the real economic gains due to policy lags. Consider all the following sectors or industries: dairy, coffee, flower & horticulture, the stock market, and real estate. All have increased tremendously over the past four years and have seen high returns and growth rates.
In the dairy sector -farmers are getting a better rate for each liter of milk delivered. This would of course have a positive multiplier effect on the economy. The farmers have more income available to spend and invest.
Roads: Contracts have been awarded and this time they have ensured and complied with strict procurement rules so that shady and/or bogus contractors are locked out. Money and all is available, but again the government has taken a back seat in terms of enforcing the contractors to do their jobs
KRA: Their revenue has increased by a huge margin!! This means better tax collection, sealing loopholes by which businesses used to evade tax.
Banks: Look at National Bank, KCB, Consolidated Bank, Co-operative Bank. All were loss making prior to 2002 and now?
Coffee industry-we are currently the third largest exporters of coffee in the world! can anyone remind me where we stood prior to 2002!???
Corruption: Any other major cases after Anglo leasing??
However, the police remain the worst public sector. They want to extort money and harass law abiding citizens for any small reasons!
Kenyans also enjoy living in a democracy: try criticizing the government in Zimbabwe...!!
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“Kenya has lots of natural and potential-look at the success of horticulture exports. Kenyan businesses and entrepreneurs need financing and help from Govt - corruption needs to be curbed. Also, Kenya needs to make use of technology to increase productivity and drive efficiency for growth - which also means IT/technology education needs to be part of the school curriculum.
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In my opinion it’s simple – each person does his job/duty in the most ideal and effective way that they can. Yes, it is true at times circumstances/conditions may be a constraint to working ideally...but hey...what's life without challenges...keep focusing on your target. For e.g....if a sweeper doesn’t sweep properly, garbage will pile...creating a dump, diseases, take up useful space. In the same way if a government does not govern properly (meaning they just eat, drive 4WDs and grow fat)....you have Kenya :) Kenya and Kenyans have the potential....that's where it ends sadly!
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Note: The following comments were in response to me putting up an “optimistic scenario” argument for Kenya
IS KENYA'S GROWTH SUSTAINABLE?
Over the past four years Kenya's economic growth has continued to exceed expectations, surging ahead at an annual rate of more than 4%. Additionally, Kenya's recent Vision 2030 predicts that 10% percent annual growth will be achieved in the coming years. Do you think this is an achievable rate?
Have the dividends been notable so far, in terms of declines in poverty and increases in living standards? What about better governance? Corruption? What are the biggest worries for the near future?
What are the real prospects for Kenya's economy, and can growth continue in a balanced and sustainable way? How? What must Kenya do right? What in your opinion is it doing wrong?
______________________________________
Vision 2030 is realistic! (the only optimisitc response!)
This administration has done a great deal for the economy! The only thing is we are yet to see the real economic gains due to policy lags. Consider all the following sectors or industries: dairy, coffee, flower & horticulture, the stock market, and real estate. All have increased tremendously over the past four years and have seen high returns and growth rates.
In the dairy sector -farmers are getting a better rate for each liter of milk delivered. This would of course have a positive multiplier effect on the economy. The farmers have more income available to spend and invest.
Roads: Contracts have been awarded and this time they have ensured and complied with strict procurement rules so that shady and/or bogus contractors are locked out. Money and all is available, but again the government has taken a back seat in terms of enforcing the contractors to do their jobs
KRA: Their revenue has increased by a huge margin!! This means better tax collection, sealing loopholes by which businesses used to evade tax.
Banks: Look at National Bank, KCB, Consolidated Bank, Co-operative Bank. All were loss making prior to 2002 and now?
Coffee industry-we are currently the third largest exporters of coffee in the world! can anyone remind me where we stood prior to 2002!???
Corruption: Any other major cases after Anglo leasing??
However, the police remain the worst public sector. They want to extort money and harass law abiding citizens for any small reasons!
Kenyans also enjoy living in a democracy: try criticizing the government in Zimbabwe...!!
***********************************
“Kenya has lots of natural and potential-look at the success of horticulture exports. Kenyan businesses and entrepreneurs need financing and help from Govt - corruption needs to be curbed. Also, Kenya needs to make use of technology to increase productivity and drive efficiency for growth - which also means IT/technology education needs to be part of the school curriculum.
************************************
In my opinion it’s simple – each person does his job/duty in the most ideal and effective way that they can. Yes, it is true at times circumstances/conditions may be a constraint to working ideally...but hey...what's life without challenges...keep focusing on your target. For e.g....if a sweeper doesn’t sweep properly, garbage will pile...creating a dump, diseases, take up useful space. In the same way if a government does not govern properly (meaning they just eat, drive 4WDs and grow fat)....you have Kenya :) Kenya and Kenyans have the potential....that's where it ends sadly!
************************************
Note: The following comments were in response to me putting up an “optimistic scenario” argument for Kenya
The targeted 10% growth that forms the Vision 2030 is indeed laudable. But will this be the kind of growth where the rich shall be richer and poor poorer....so the growth just pertains to barely 20% of the entire country?! I want to see overall growth...not the superficial kind that shows up in the international polls whilst there still remain joblessness, hunger, and disease.
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While I agree with a lot of the things, I also think that Kenya’s performance in things like manufacturing, agriculture is affected by the lack of infrastructure, especially a good transport system. Our roads are terrible. Look at the Mariakani/Mombasa road…..Mombasa is Kenya’s only port and yet the road that connects it to the main city is in a sad state. This affects business tremendously. The same goes for the Nairobi-Naivasha highway. Kenya has some of the best flower farms yet they lose out in terms of international competitiveness because of the high transport and maintenance costs of trucks using the Naivasha road to transport flowers
As for brain drain and emigration, it is true that a lot of people are returning to Kenya because of the huge prospects here. But it is also more a case of people who are not getting jobs overseas and are likely to get jobs here through their connections and the unfair recruitment process.
Security is a big issue in Kenya as well (not just because it is an election year), there is a lot of constant police harassment going on which is and will continue to eventually drive people to move out if it’s not curbed. As much as statistics show a rosy picture, there are so many thorns which affect the whole economy especially in terms of lost business and investment opportunities.
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Kenya's recent outlook of 10% GROWTH is quite ambitious. The effects of the growth even if any will be hardly felt. For example, if the US economy is growing by only a meager 2% in a given period, the effects will be felt because USA is already developed ,but for a country like KENYA 10% will not be felt as she is still a third world country, coming out from years of negative growth.
So far I haven’t seen any decline in poverty as there still rampant growth in crime all over the country. This indicates that a lot of the population is still poor and jobs are so scarce that they have to resolve to crime. Living standards are still below as the per capita income is still below a dollar a day. And, how do you reduce poverty when the inflation rate is so high. If the inflation is so high this means that there is need to increase interest rates thus increase cost of borrowing so as to contain inflation. This effect will be felt across the board as money will not be cheaply accessible thereby making the economy slowdown again and hampering growth. In terms of governance, I still think it is a pathetic government. Take the example of ministry of roadworks- it is are still sleeping on the job. Most of the upcountry roads are inaccessible and yet they assert they are doing the job. The funding that they receive is still being siphoned. That is where the economy growth sets in again; if most roads are bad then how will farmers transport their good to and fro? Kenya is an agricultural dependent country; if the farmers face these kinds of difficulties then how do you expect the economy to grow? In sum, the biggest worries for Kenya are:
************************************
While I agree with a lot of the things, I also think that Kenya’s performance in things like manufacturing, agriculture is affected by the lack of infrastructure, especially a good transport system. Our roads are terrible. Look at the Mariakani/Mombasa road…..Mombasa is Kenya’s only port and yet the road that connects it to the main city is in a sad state. This affects business tremendously. The same goes for the Nairobi-Naivasha highway. Kenya has some of the best flower farms yet they lose out in terms of international competitiveness because of the high transport and maintenance costs of trucks using the Naivasha road to transport flowers
As for brain drain and emigration, it is true that a lot of people are returning to Kenya because of the huge prospects here. But it is also more a case of people who are not getting jobs overseas and are likely to get jobs here through their connections and the unfair recruitment process.
Security is a big issue in Kenya as well (not just because it is an election year), there is a lot of constant police harassment going on which is and will continue to eventually drive people to move out if it’s not curbed. As much as statistics show a rosy picture, there are so many thorns which affect the whole economy especially in terms of lost business and investment opportunities.
************************************
Kenya's recent outlook of 10% GROWTH is quite ambitious. The effects of the growth even if any will be hardly felt. For example, if the US economy is growing by only a meager 2% in a given period, the effects will be felt because USA is already developed ,but for a country like KENYA 10% will not be felt as she is still a third world country, coming out from years of negative growth.
So far I haven’t seen any decline in poverty as there still rampant growth in crime all over the country. This indicates that a lot of the population is still poor and jobs are so scarce that they have to resolve to crime. Living standards are still below as the per capita income is still below a dollar a day. And, how do you reduce poverty when the inflation rate is so high. If the inflation is so high this means that there is need to increase interest rates thus increase cost of borrowing so as to contain inflation. This effect will be felt across the board as money will not be cheaply accessible thereby making the economy slowdown again and hampering growth. In terms of governance, I still think it is a pathetic government. Take the example of ministry of roadworks- it is are still sleeping on the job. Most of the upcountry roads are inaccessible and yet they assert they are doing the job. The funding that they receive is still being siphoned. That is where the economy growth sets in again; if most roads are bad then how will farmers transport their good to and fro? Kenya is an agricultural dependent country; if the farmers face these kinds of difficulties then how do you expect the economy to grow? In sum, the biggest worries for Kenya are:
- BAD/DIRTY POLITICS
- ENVIROMENTAL EFFECTS
- FOOD INSECURITY
- JOB INSECURITY
- BUDGET IMBALANCES
- CORRUPTION
- POOR INFRACSTRUCTURE
- HIGH INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
- SECURITY ISSUES
I think to make the economy grow we first need to work out these problems facing kenya then forge ahead with the growth
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About banking/ICT....it seems again that there are extremes....we have M-banking, internet billing and the likes...where as we have manual ledgers and typewrites as well....so...any sane person can see that the technology is SO available, it's for industries/companies/individuals to take advantage of it if they want to be at par with the market (global and local)....yes, you do need the capital to invest in these expensive technologies...but in the long term the ROI will be well worth it!
************************************
About banking/ICT....it seems again that there are extremes....we have M-banking, internet billing and the likes...where as we have manual ledgers and typewrites as well....so...any sane person can see that the technology is SO available, it's for industries/companies/individuals to take advantage of it if they want to be at par with the market (global and local)....yes, you do need the capital to invest in these expensive technologies...but in the long term the ROI will be well worth it!
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