Nov 20, 2008

THE COMMODITIES BOOM

THE COMMODITIES BOOM

Commodity markets have been booming. Prices of many commodities, especially those of oil, corn, wheat, tin and nickel have reached record high recently, despite credit market turbulence and slowing activity in many major advanced economies. The current boom has also been broader based and longer lasting than usual.

The price boom has brought a sea change to the commodities landscape. Commodity exporting countries have benefited from rapidly growing export revenue. In fact, a number of analysts see high commodity prices as an important reason for the buoyant growth in many emerging and developing economies. At the same time, investment in the commodities sector has accelerated after a long period of lacklustre performance. In financial markets, commodities are now an established part of the wider class of alternative assets. At the same time, commodity importers and consumers have begun to feel the pinch from higher commodity process, with widespread concern about the impact on the poor in emerging and developing economies.

Although strong economic growth globally is one of the reasons for high prices, forecasts of slower globally activities in 2008-09 have prompted concerns about prospects for commodity markets. However, the current commodities boom reflects many cyclical and structural factors. The impact of this largely demand driven boom on the global economy has been limited so far, higher commodity prices have begun to pose inflation risks and may lead to external financing challenges for some countries, particularly low-income net commodity importers.

A look at demand and supply factors
Why are commodity prices so high? Besides commodity specific factors such as geopolitical risks, weather conditions, and crop infestations- the current price boom is driven by demand and supply forces that reinforce each other amid supportive financial conditions.

First, emerging economies have driven demand for various commodities- a trend that is likely to continue. Annual increases in the global consumption of major commodity groups recently have been larger than they were in the 1980s and 90s. And although buoyant global growth was a key contributor, it was reinforced by a combination of strong per capita income growth, and rapid population growth in some major emerging economies, notably China, India and in the Middle East. All of these factors have contributed to the rapid pace at which demand has grown in recent years.
In the oil markets, demand from China, India and Middle East accounted for more that 56 percent of the growth in oil consumption during 2001-2007. This growth was partly driven partly by the increasing vehicle ownerships associated with higher per capita income. Passenger car sales in China, for example, increased more than fivefold during 2001-07. At the same time, industrialization and urbanisation in emerging markets, particularly in China, have boosted demand for fuel based electricity. As a result, prices of other fuels particularly coal has also gone up.

Emerging economies are also playing a key role in the boom in non-fuel commodity markets. In particular, China’s industrialization and urbanization have galvanized consumption of based metals. For example, during 2000-06 China alone accounted for about 90% of the increase in the world consumption of copper, which is indispensable for construction. Also, as emerging economies become more affluent, they are not only consuming more food but shifting their diet towards high protein foods such as meat, sea food, edible oils and vegetables.

Second, biofuels have boosted the demand for specific food crops.
Another prominent factor underpinning the difference between this boom and earlier ones is the role of biofuels. High oil prices and policy support in the US and EU have ked to a surge in the use of biofuels as a supplement to transportation fuels particularly as a supplement to transportation fuels, particularly in the advanced economies. Biofuel production is seriously affecting food markets- 20-50% of feedstocks, especially corn and rapeseed, in major producing countries are being diverted from food to biofuels - but not affecting petroleum product markets, in which biofuels constitute a small fraction of transportation fuel supply. This means prices of petroleum products are determining retail prices of biofuels, and growth of biofuels, in turn, is strongly affecting feedstock prices (ethanol in particular which produced from corn and sugar).

Policies about biofuel in the US and EU imply that diverting crops towards biofuel production will continue for at least another 5 years, when new technology in the form of second –generation biofuel feedstocks- made of inedible vegetable matter that does not compete for land and water with major food crops become commercially viable. In the US, the 2007 energy Bill almost quintuples the biofuels target to 35 billion gallons by 2022 and the EU has mandates that 10% of transportation fuels must use biofuels by 2020. This means that upward pressures on prices of some of the major food crops will continue for some time.

Third, slow supply responses have amplified price pressures. Increased demand alone cannot explain the larger and persistent rise in commodity prices seen in recent years. Supply factors also play a role. The slow supply response in the initial phases of this primarily demand-driven boom did not come as a surprise, given limits to production increases in the short term, Excess demand is accommodated by inventory draw downs while price increase- a pattern that was seen in many commodity markets in recent years. Because demand for commodities tends to be price inelastic- that of, a large change in the price of commodities leads to only a small change in the demand for them, especially in the short term- the feedback effects of rapid price increases on demand during these phases tend to be limited, which partly explains the large spikes often seen in commodity markets.

Besides initial supply-response problems, however, a new key feature that has emerged in the current broad-based commodity market boom is the increasingly prominent role of the slow supply adjustment to increased demand.

Fourth,
important linkages across commodities transmit higher prices. For example, demand for biofuels has propelled not only prices of corn but also those of other food products, because corn is used as input in their production (meat, poultry, dairy) or as a close substitute. In the US, for example, it has exerted significant upward pressure on prices of soybean means and soybean oil because corn and soy beans compete for the same acreage. This contributes to the price increased of other edible oils through substitution effects. To a lesser extent, demand for biodiesel has also affected prices of edible oils, because soybean oil and other vegetable oils such as palm oil and rapeseed are used as biodiesel inputs.

Higher oil prices have also had an important effect on other commodities, not only through the traditional cost push mechanism but also through substitution effects. For example, natural rubber price have risen because its substitute is petroleum based synthetic rubber, Uranium price increases have been driven by demand for nuclear energy, whereas coal prices have recently risen because of utilities switching from more expensive fuel oil to coal for power generation. And, of course, bio fuels are substitutes for gasoline and diesel at the margin

Fifth, low interest rates and effective dollar depreciation have been a supporting factor. With the rapid expansion of commodity financial markets in recent years, many commodity prices are more directly exposed to various macro economic and financial shocks. The main reason is that spot prices of a growing number of commodities are determined in exchange-based trading. Moreover, with many futures contracts settled in cash rather than through the delivery of the underlying commodity, investors outside the commodity business can now use commodities to diversify their portfolio, thereby more closely linking futures markets for commodities with other financial markets. This has opened up new opportunities for market participants but also let to challenges.

Commodity prices have also been supported by other conditions, especially low interest rates and the depreciating effective U.S dollar exchange rate. Low interest rates can spur aggregate demand, which would increase the demand for commodities. Besides this, the favourable liquidity conditions associated with low interest rates also tend to increase both asset demand for commodities and incentives for holding commodity inventories by lowering holding costs, everything else being equal.

The U.S dollar exchange rate affects commodity prices because most commodities are prices in UD dollars. The dollar depreciation seen over the past few years therefore has made commodities less expensive for consumers outside the dollar area, thereby increasing the demand for the commodities. On the supply side, the declining profits in local currency for producers outside the dollar area have put price pressures on the commodities. A decline in the effective value of the dollar also reduces the returns on dollar-denominated financial assets in foreign currencies, which can make commodities a more attractive class of ‘alternative assets’ to foreign investors.

Policy Implications
The commodity price boom has raised new policy issues. From a multilateral perspective, policy efforts should focus on ensuring the efficient functioning of market forces at the global level because markets for many commodities are highly integrated. At the same time improving market statistics could help by enabling market participants to make informed decisions.

In the markets for major food crops, policies that ensure efficient and realistic use of biofuels and discourage protectionist elements will help reduce the prices of corn and edible oil. Current policies in both the United States and the European Union would have to be adjusted substantially, given larger subsides and the preference for domestic production even if it is relatively inefficient. For example, broadly accepted estimates suggest that Brazilian ethanol (from sugarcane) is less costly to produce than US gasoline or corn based ethanol. Also, sugarcane ethanol produces 91% fewer greenhouse gas emissions per kilometre travelled than does gasoline, whereas the environmental benefits of corn and wheat based ethanol relative to gasoline are small. Therefore, a better policy would be to allow free trade in bio fuels while incorporating emissions costs into prices of all fuels. In addition, there is a legitimate role for governments of all countries to fund promising research in second generation bio fuels, given that they serve as a public good.

In addition to policies that can enhance the functioning of global commodity markets, mitigating the impact of rising food and fuel prices on poor households has become a major policy concern. Motivated by worries about food security, a number of countries have resorted to protectionist measures, which may have contributes to global market tightness. For example, in 2007, a number of countries imposed export taxes on grains and lowered tariffs on edible oils. Instead, countries should consider targeted cash transfers to poor households or temporary subsidies on a few selected food items consumed by the poor. Similarly, instead of granting general domestic fuel subsidies, which generate considerable fiscal cost, encourage excessive energy consumption, and tend to disproportionately benefit wealthier households, many oil exporting countries should minimize the effect of high fuel prices on poor households through well-designed and targeted safety nets.

Oct 16, 2007

STRONG CORPORATE CULTURE VITAL FOR COMPANY SUCCESS

The recent economic boom in Kenya has taken its toll on more than just the corporate bottom line. It has also had a significant impact on the employment scenario and the work environment, as companies battle it out to retain employees. Some employees are left wondering what happened to the organizations they originally joined or even worse, most employees never really figure out what kind of organization it is that they are a part of. As Kenyan companies grow in size and become important players in the global market place, the very essence of these companies - its culture, is becoming of profound importance in order to maintain a competitive edge.
Employees are now looking for something better and more fulfilling in their lives and at work. As the battle for talent begins to heat up, it is more essential than ever for companies to provide employees with a strong and open corporate culture, and a meaningful work experience with a nurturing day-to-day work environment.
Although it surrounds us, corporate culture is hard to define. Simply stated, it is the glue that holds a company together through good times and bad. What is corporate culture? At its most basic, it's described as the personality of an organization, or simply as "how things are done around here." It guides how employees think, act, and feel. Corporate culture is a broad term used to define the unique personality or character of a particular company or organization, and includes such elements as core values and beliefs, corporate ethics, and rules of behavior. Corporate culture can be expressed in the company's mission statement and other communications, in the architectural style or interior decor of offices, by what people wear to work, by how people address each other, and in the titles given to various employees.
A strong corporate culture should be able to align an entire organization around a shared set of goals and objectives, while at the same time empowering employees to make decisions in their areas of responsibility.
A corporate culture should also reflect shared principles and values among all employees, from the bottom to the top of the corporate ladder. These values should remain constant and be recognized as being at the heart of the organization.
The importance of a company culture should not be overlooked. A good corporate culture goes a long way toward attracting the very best people and retaining that top talent. One outcome that has been quantified, in fact, is employee loyalty; turnover rates at companies with strong cultures are usually significantly lower than the industry average.
The core values of corporate culture remain constant. But it's important to recognize that for any organization to excel and survive in business today, systems, structures, styles and business practices must adapt -- often quickly -- to shifting business needs. Change is always over the horizon, and it is exciting as well as challenging. In fact, the ability to change when necessary is a key element of a strong and lasting company.
Managing Corporate Culture

Because corporate culture is based on taken-for-granted assumptions and beliefs, it can be an elusive concept. There may not be a single culture, but a number of cultures spread throughout the organization, and this does not make managing the corporate culture easier. There is no such thing as a "good" or "bad" culture, but only cultures that are appropriate or inappropriate.

The strength of culture clearly influences its impact on corporate behaviour. Strong cultures have more widely-shared and more clearly expressed beliefs and values than do weak ones. These values will probably have been developed over a considerable period of time and they will be perceived as functional in the sense that they help the organization achieve its purpose.

Culture is learned. Schein (1983) suggests that it is learned in two ways. First, there is the trauma model, in which members of the organization learn to cope using defense mechanisms. Second, there is the "positive reinforcement" model, where things that work become embedded and entrenched. Learning takes place as people adapt to and cope with external pressures, and as they develop successful approaches to carrying out organizational goals. The nature of those goals largely determines the way it goes about its business, and this in turn affects the way the corporate culture develops and is manifested within the organization. Against this background, organizational members, with the values, philosophy, beliefs, assumptions, and norms of top management playing a dominant role, create corporate culture.

According to Armstrong (1991) approaches to managing corporate culture and achieving cultural change in the workplace are:

● Reorganization to facilitate integration, to create departments or jobs which are responsible for new activities or to eliminate unnecessary layers of management.
● Organizational development to help the organization respond to change.
● Communication to get the message across
• Increase the identification of staff with the firm and therefore enhance their commitment. This could be done easily by creating a website with staff pictures, departments, and job titles.
• Provide the opportunity for all levels of staff to become more involved in the organization's affairs. Participatory management will help to improve the corporate culture. The sense of belonging will result in the increase in staff productivity and hence firm efficiency.
• Generate ideas from staff to develop the business, improve the levels of customer service, and increase productivity.
• Training can help form new attitudes about customer service, quality, managing and motivating people, or productivity; to increase commitment to the firm and its values; to review and challenge assumptions, and to improve skills or teach new skills.
• Recruitment of new employees to fit the desired culture or to reinforce the existing culture.
• Performance management to ensure that managers, supervisors, and staff are aware of their objectives and are assessed on results, and that performance improvement programmes consisting of self-development, coaching, counseling, and training are used to capitalize on strengths or overcome weaknesses.
• Reward management to enhance the cultural assumption that rewards should be related to achievement.
Corporate culture doesn't just happen. Making it work takes time and effort and a great deal of communication. Managers and executives must demonstrate commitment at every level of the organization to a positive, open and caring corporate culture. Taking the time to listen to employees, understand their needs and concerns, and then address them in our work environment will go a long way to help ensure the long-term viability of our business.

Oct 12, 2007

PROFESSIONALISM AT WORK- WHAT IT TAKES

It's sometimes difficult to identify the true meaning of "professionalism." Many individuals use professionalism as a facade to cover their lack ability to perform their job effectively. Others use it to for intimidation to gain power. Still others use it as a way to impress the unknowing. However, it seems that very few individuals use it for its original intent---to provide a foundation for effective communications and efficient performance.
During one of my recent weekly group emails, I decided to touch on an issue that often frustrates us at work and a word we use so often. What exactly does ‘being professional’ or professionalism mean? And I got varied answers. This got me thinking more. What defines professionalism in a work place?
“Keep your emotional and private life to yourself. Volunteer to do more then what you are paid for. Get a rhinoceros hide to petty people in the work place. Your attitude will open more doors for you or allow you to get a good referral if you have to leave your job”
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“Professionalism is a work practice or culture enforced throughout an organization whereby all the processes/procedures are implemented and practiced to achieve effectiveness/efficiency thereby delivering '' A'' class service to customers/clients and hence creating a ‘feel good factor ‘about the organization in the customers”
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It simply means operate by the book/company rules/policies! And be SMART”
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“Professionalism at work? Well it depends on the environment, the country and the culture. It’s a bit like driving; no matter how safely you drive, someone else might be reckless and cause lots of damage. Similarly, at work it all depends on the organization’s culture. If you try and be professional in a laid back place you are not going to be in anyone's good books and your job security will not be so bright; bosses like to keep 'yes sir’ people close to them. In such a place, if you are professional then you will be deemed to be cold, and won't get too many invites for drinks etc”
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Professionalism has many levels and is handled many different ways. You might find that what one person sees as being professional, another would see otherwise. This can cause considerable confusion for someone trying to define professionalism in their own career.
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The answers varied, but it became evident that the challenges that we all face at some point are not in our ability to handle our job, but in our lack of a definitive understanding of professionalism in their workplace. Nevertheless, the core definition of professionalism is always the same and will hardly change from firm to firm or country to country.
What is "Professionalism"?
Power lunches and golfing with associates has little to do with the definition of professionalism. Extracurricular activities are great for networking; however, they are also situations in which individuals make their greatest mistake: trusting the situation and letting down their professional facade. Your emotional self begins to rise to the surface and you immediately alter the playing field against yourself.
Drinking with the boss has absolutely nothing to do with the definition of professionalism. While it is possible to get into the "inner circle" this way, I have seen careers come crashing down over a single beer because the boss was able to use the alcohol as a way to find "the real you" beneath the business-shield. You begin to relax and eventually your professional being takes a hike.
Business suits do not define professionalism; however, the professional situation defines which clothes you should wear. Whether it is casual day or formal day in your office, you must dress to look your part. How you look demonstrates how you feel and will define how people see your professional being, inside and out.
So, what is professionalism if it's not power lunches, golf, drinking with the boss, and business suits? A general, raw view of professionalism is, "a focused, accountable, confident, competent, motivation toward a particular goal, with respect for hierarchy and humanity, less the emotion." What this means is that you leave out the outbursts and emotional thralls that accompany stressful situations and success. You maintain focus, with a sense of urgency, and accept responsibility on a path toward a specific goal. In the process, you maintain respect for your superiors, peers, and subordinates as well as respect them as human beings.
Handling Professional Situations
The advantage to dealing with professional situations without emotion, and base business-related interactions on intellect, industry, and experience, is that it provides a common foundation from which professional relationships can flourish. Emotion varies wildly between individuals; however, competency in a particular field provides a basis of understanding. From this basis, everyone can function and exercise their power on the same playing field.
Understand that a business situation has a purpose and a goal. Jocularity and emotional responses have no place in such a situation because it takes away from the time spent moving toward that goal. By including such emotion into a professional relationship can make others, who are focused on their direction, see you as someone that doesn't take their position seriously. I am not saying that a sense of humor is not acceptable, but it can sometimes get you labeled as someone who is not a "team player," among other things.
The point to realize is that, if a professional situation seems to be turning against you, maybe you are not behaving in a professional manner.
Are you unprofessional?
Most people feel that professionalism is a subjective term based on a hidden set of standards. Many companies use these standards to criticize you if they don't like you, and to praise you otherwise.
One can justifiably be seen as unprofessional if you have not taken the time to understand your corporate culture and learn the "hidden standards." Corporate culture plays a considerable role into the idea of professionalism. You have to learn how to maintain your level of raw professionalism and, once you learn the corporate culture, add the new expectations to your professional facade.

In summary, professionalism can be measured using the following indicators:
 Responsiveness as the golden rule: Giving timely feedback and positive criticism is crucial in enhancing communication
 Organization and time management
 Email/voicemail best practices
 Importance of planning and adhering to the plan
 Problem solving attitudes
 Manners matter
 Integrity always
 Impact communications
 Presentation development
 Dressing appropriately
 Speaking politely and courteously
 Performing your job duties to the best of your ability
 Arriving and leaving at the designated times
 Not abusing sick and vacation time
 Leaving personal life at home

Aug 1, 2007

Oshwal Youth in the 21st Century

In which direction is the youth of today?

Being a youth in the 21st century is a challenging and dynamic experience. We live in an era influenced by myriad factors; in a global melting pot where our lives are shaped by the media, technology, the internet and Western influences.

The Oshwal youth face many more challenges socially and emotionally. They are brought up in a multi-cultural environment where they are constantly exposed to and reminded of their culture and identity and yet experience a Western lifestyle, in terms of education, diet, and music.

Who are we? Where do we come from? Whether it is a search for belonging or just curiosity about our heritage, we all wonder about our ancestral roots. Do these questions perplex the minds of young Oshwals? This is where they face a dilemma- are we Kenyans? Indians? Or Kenyans of Indian origin?

In spite of four generations of Oshwals proliferating in Kenya, we have not made up our minds. We claim to be African and yet completely personify Indian social and cultural behaviour. As a society we are completely segregated from the political and socio-economic environment of Kenya. Yet this isolation has not fostered as strong a preservation of our own heritage as would have been expected. Thus, our youth seem to be ‘neither here nor there’.

In our globalized world it is inevitable to be completely immersed and absorbed by other backgrounds. Our youth can no longer be expected to confine their choice of life partners within our community. However, their cross-cultural marriages which are celebrated in accordance with Hindu rites and rituals are an illustration that our youth have still maintained Indian values. To a certain extent they are still cognisant of and respect our customs.

Materialism and individualism are inevitable aspects of the 21st century. Young Oshwals have high-flying careers and as a result, they are independent- financially, socially and even emotionally. The greater their independence, the more difficult it becomes for them to personify traditional Indian values such as joint families, leading simple lives enriched by moral ethics, and financially supporting relatives.

The pillars of community spirit that our institutions were founded on are slowly crumbling because of this materialism. Today it’s all about ‘work hard and party even harder’. The youth would rather enjoy frivolous night life with their peers than attend or volunteer at community events. Our youth should be inspired to give back to, and, be part and parcel of, the community from which they have derived their identity. Let us remind them of our forefathers’ immense sacrifices and foresight and inspire them to build upon and cherish them.

When in school the demands of achieving academic success almost suffocate our youth. Later, in their working lives, it is the pressure to be financially successful that becomes of paramount importance. As a result the youth have lost sight of the simple and basic values of social living such as courtesy and etiquette. Apart from friends and contemporaries they cannot converse easily with the generation above them. Students in our community schools have such a well established comfort zone that they tend to stick to their cliques even at university. As a result they never find the need to be curious or share their knowledge and experiences with other international students.

Most young Oshwals do not return to Kenya once they leave for university. Consequentially, our community suffers from a huge brain drain which has multi-dimensional repercussions. Families are fragmented; the vast distances creating impenetrable barriers to nurturing close family ties. Oshwals are known for their entrepreneurial spirit and family businesses. The very businesses that made it possible for the youth to study overseas are today on the verge of winding up because there is no new family blood to take over the reins of running these businesses.

The youth of yesteryear were much more docile and would take our social and cultural customs at face value, believe in them for what they were. Exposed to todays interactive environment, our youth question some of these values and demand rational explanations. Yet, there are some customs that add intrinsic richness to our heritage, without necessarily having any logical reasoning. Because of their insatiable thirst for rationalism, the youth fail to observe many age old beliefs and customs, leading to a self-imposed dilution of our ethnicity.


Mahatma Gandhi once said:
“Neglect of mother tongue is a national suicide”
Social values can only be fostered through our mother tongue. The fact that the youth cannot converse in Gujarati with their grandparents, is creating an ever widening generation gap within our families. This builds barriers to the passing on of valuable and interesting family history and traditions. Most of the generation that emigrated from Gujarat in the early 1900s are no longer with us. Links with our ‘motherland’ are now more tenuous than ever before and the present youth will have no stories to tell to their children. As if to exacerbate this dilemma, none of these stories have been documented and if they have been, they are in Gujarati, which is as good as Greek to our youth. In this respect, let us rekindle our mother tongue by ensuring that we learn it, read it, write it and speak it.

Oshwals are renowned world over for their accomplishments in every field: business, academia, sport... The basic values that have been the foundation of our success might still be intact in our youth. They have not completely lost sight of them nor have they been eroded. But, as a community we need to guide and nurture our youth towards preserving the best of our heritage. Traditional values must be readapted in a way that they complement, not substitute the basis of modern day life. Let us discover ways of preserving our culture, so that our youth can harmoniously co-exist in modern society. The scent of Halar’s hard baked earth in which our ancestors toiled for a modest living may not mean anything to our youth. From Gujarat to present day Kenya, and onwards to the West, we have come a full circle and lost some of our ‘Oshwalness’. But our youth can definitely learn the significance of cultural pride. They may succumb to Western influence but in the process will gain awareness and appreciation of our roots,

Apr 24, 2007

KENYA 2002-2007- A synopsis

By guest writer: M.S

This government came in with a bang… brought 5-6 months or less of fresh air, showed true potential of what good leadership to this country could achieve, and then started on its most probably pre-planned act of looting the coffers. Just as NARC came in, dodgy contractors were forced off, the corrupt in the civil service – Police, CID, City Council, Lands offices, etc started fearing and stopped demanding bribes; and there were several incidences where the public beat up policeman who were caught demanding bribes. Infrastructure started to improve; the proof being the beautification, repair and lighting up of Uhuru Highway and roundabouts.

But as the improvements were dieing, the political elite already had their hands in the coffers – Anglo Leasing was inherited from Kanu and it grew under NARC. There is not enough publicized evidence out there that Anglo Leasing, and the Artur Brothers – all had links to State House.

Very soon after elections, Kiraitu Murungi – who was nearly bankrupt just before the 2002 elections, had already taken over a huge chunk of businesses and buildings in Nyeri, and Mr Chris Murungaru was already a multi billionaire. Lucy Kibaki who had been active in the public for the wrong reasons went quiet after a series of blunders while Uncle Moody, who was since appointment as VP – active in the public spotlight, hid away from the press after directly being linked to the Anglo Leasing scandal – as the man who had approved the projects.

By this time, the lone man who was fighting to save Kenya, John Githongo, had seen he could not win and he was a lone fish in a sea full of huge corrupt sharks. For the sake of his life, he escaped the country and remains the only person with full evidence of all scandals. More and more bodies and committees are formed to supposedly fight graft, yet each have done absolutely nothing to halt the vice. Mr Aaron Ringera, who despite taking home KSh 2.5million a month and being the highest paid civil servant, heads the Kenya Anti Corruption Authority who have not proven guilty even a single serious offender involved in corruption. The corrupt politicians have got long hands into all these authorities to ensure there is no action taken – shown by the total hibernation of Transparency International – once a brave warrior against graft, and until recently became clogged with allies of President Kibaki's advisors.

Presidential aspirants took advantage of the government scandals to boost their popularity by forming the ODM which humiliatingly trounced the government in the referendum. Kenyans had finally spoken – the referendum loss was more a political defeat for the government by the majority of Kenyans who had seen the senior government officials were already on the ladder to boost personal coffers, against the grounds it was voted in for – to fight corruption.

The embarrassment of the referendum loss led to the dissolving of the cabinet. Kenyans now expected the powerful ODM members to be included in the new cabinet – to prevent the president further embarrassment, or a vote of no-confidence in the government, yet the president boldly left out most ODM members from his new Cabinet. Interestingly, the power-loving Mr Kombo and Ngilu accepted their new roles after first rejecting them. This new cabinet distinctly broadcasted the Kenyan Political Game – all about Cabinet posts for the more votes the candidate gets the president. No wonder why we see in parliament, the greatest of crooks with the least intelligence, some having only completed high school education.

As 2006 drew towards a close and the election year arrives, the greed for power and wealth intensifies. The more you earn this year, the more you can campaign with to win the jackpot of another 5 years in Parliament, or be elevated onto the cabinet. As presidential aspirants announce their promises, the government attempts to match them to defeat the opposition – hence the government appears close to promising free secondary education if voted in again.

The president launches yet another Anti-Corruption steering committee, which brings to over 20 the number of authorities created to fight graft, yet all are simply wasting government or donor funding.

The president launches the Vision 2030 – to have Kenya a developed nation. Why suddenly, as the elections approach? Simply to get the backing of Kenyans for another 5 years at the helm. In the last 4 years, what really has his government done to back this new plan for the future?

Yes, his men constantly boast about the rising economic growth – which in reality has only benefited the rich – most of who are in some way politically connected to the leaders. The country has seen a boom in the financial sector including the stock market, the tourism sector, and the agricultural sector amongst others. Yet, the numbers of new graduates and the unemployed are simply far higher for the country to derive real benefit and the entire population enjoying improved standards of living. 60 or 70% of Kenyans are just equal or worse than they were under the previous regime.

Corruption still thrives at the senior level. Despite laws such as Public Procurement Act, there is far too much secrecy for it to really be implemented and lengthy arms of senior politicians will always make their way to win lucrative contracts. Wealthy crooks under the KANU regime, who were charged with corruption are still freely walking around, as the corrupt legal system has not dealt with their cases, or simply thrown them away – once again all thanks to the brotherhood of corrupt individuals. Judges who had been suspended for corruption in 2003 are all making their way back to their seats as the totally ineffective justice system can prove no wrong doing, or rather, being tried by their true friends and former colleagues who can see no wrong.

The country's transport system is once again a menace. Even Police efforts to crack down on offenders is halted by our embarrassing minister who shot the government in the foot by admitting to owning matatus – the reason for the country's transport troubles. Only in Kenya can this be legal, where the greatest offenders on the roads – Matatus are owned by Ministers, MPs, Police Inspectors and any other powerful individual – and for this reason the offenders are untouchables!

Being a victim of harassment is a part of every middle and low class Kenyan's life. It comes from Kenya Police, the CID, The Nairobi City Council, The Kenya Revenue Authority, NEMA – The National Environmental Management Authority, The Lands Office, and the list is endless. Corruption is now deep-rooted in the blood of 99% of Kenyan civil servants, from a Minister down to a Junior Police Officer. Without parting with wealth, you can simply not even attempt to get something you are entitled to.

1) Kenya Police:
- Getting a Police Abstract for a robbery/ theft is not straightforward without the officer receiving cash
- Commit a small offence and you'll be charged for something huge, if you do not fill the officer's pockets
- Theft and Robbery victims very often identify the thugs as Police officers themselves
- You will be falsely charged for offences that are not even in Kenyan law – e.g. for not wearing a rear seat belt, not carrying a fire extinguisher/ first-aid kit in a private car… yet they will lie and prove you wrong.
- A Kenyan driving license is valid abroad for a year, yet Kenya, being so advanced – only accepts foreign licenses for 2 weeks! Being unaware, you will simply be arrested until you bribe.
- Road license was abolished, yet you will still be harassed for it – expecting the victim to be scared and naive

2) Nairobi and Municipal Councils:
- You will falsely by accused and man handled/ assaulted into their trucks for littering, even when you are far away from any rubbish on the floor, or are setup by their own colleagues. You will not be set free for days without giving into their bribes, as legally you will never win them either
- Rates for Sewer/ Water/ Rubbish/ Land are often incorrect and overcharged yet no one will ever admit their mistake. Payments made will not appear in statements, and you are forced to bribe them to stop being assaulted and falsely arrested
- Car parking attendants will hide, while your car will be clamped or towed away as you attempt to seek an attendant to make a payment.
- Building owners are forced into repairs, yet the repairs take months for themselves to approve – during which time you are arrested and taken to court wrongful negligence

3) NEMA – Factories are given notices or sued for even little pollution they may cause, yet hugely guilty offenders which are controlled by politically powerful leaders will be totally exempted.
4) Kenya Revenue Authority officials will falsely accuse you of not paying or paying less tax, where as thousands of traders who do significantly more businesses are untouched. At the ports and airports, those who 'cleanly' import goods and pay charges – their goods will not be cleared for weeks and months, yet those of the politically powerful leave the ports and airports in hours, without any taxes, yet they will never be caught. A clear example – the goods sold in Eastleigh mostly by Somali traders who bring them in illegally without any taxes/ duties paid, and do not pay a cent in tax, yet are untouchable.

These are just some of the low-end harassments that Kenyans encounter daily. With the huge brain drain the country experiences, it is not even shocking that the talented and brainy would want to escape such harassment where they are proven wrong, assaulted when innocent.

With the hugely corrupt justice system, law makers and authorities such as the Law Courts and Kenya Police, there is no bright future for the average Kenya. Ruined further by our corrupt leaders who deal illegally at multi-billion shilling level, the majority of Kenyans have a very bleak future to strive for their daily bread while they see the evil & guilty offenders living in luxury.

Back to Parliament – where each MP earns about KSh 600,000 per month – tax free [whereas the minimum wage for a Kenyan is about Ksh 5,200]. Ministers, their assistants and other post-holders earn even more. They are paid these obscene sums to do well for the country – yet the majority of the times are out at political events or attending to their thriving private businesses. Out of about 250 MPs, very often the Parliament runs with 20-30 MPs, yet not a single law exists to force their presence. These careless leaders bag a minimum KSh150million a month, yet do not care a rat's ass about the public! They are not even satisfied with these obscene figures and give themselves pay rises every year or 2 – during which case the government and opposition forget their differences to boost their coffers. They are the highest paid MPs in the world, while the country remains one of the poorest in the world!

To add insult to injury, simply to please the international community, the finance minister said during the 2006 budget that they will be introducing taxing the MPs. Nearly 10 months on, not a word from the Finance Minister again. Let alone Mr Brave Finance Minister dare anything – the opposition will unite with the government to shoot the action down. The 2006 budget also stated a reduction in Government vehicles from all ministries, yet only about 150 were returned, though in reality must have been about a 1000 vehicles. Ministers, Assistants etc were ordered to reduce the official cars they were provided – several of them objected and rebelled – yet, being powerful and having no law against them – no action has ever been taken 10months on.

This is Kenya – a country ruled by corrupt leaders who have injected corruption into the blood of civil servants. Politics here is a dirty game where only the politically powerful and dirty survive. The innocent here have no law to protect them, while the corrupt have a huge brotherhood covering every corner of the law to eliminate any barrier/victim and protect their interests. Sadly, as a patriotic Kenyan, I see no bright future for most of us low and middle class Kenyans, yet the corrupt will always remain untouchables.

IS KENYA'S GROWTH SUSTAINABLE?

I recently conducted a mini survey on peoples perception of Kenya and its future. Below is the email I sent out, followed by the responses I received.
IS KENYA'S GROWTH SUSTAINABLE?

Over the past four years Kenya's economic growth has continued to exceed expectations, surging ahead at an annual rate of more than 4%. Additionally, Kenya's recent Vision 2030 predicts that 10% percent annual growth will be achieved in the coming years. Do you think this is an achievable rate?
Have the dividends been notable so far, in terms of declines in poverty and increases in living standards? What about better governance? Corruption? What are the biggest worries for the near future?
What are the real prospects for Kenya's economy, and can growth continue in a balanced and sustainable way? How? What must Kenya do right? What in your opinion is it doing wrong?
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Vision 2030 is realistic! (the only optimisitc response!)

This administration has done a great deal for the economy! The only thing is we are yet to see the real economic gains due to policy lags. Consider all the following sectors or industries: dairy, coffee, flower & horticulture, the stock market, and real estate. All have increased tremendously over the past four years and have seen high returns and growth rates.

In the dairy sector -farmers are getting a better rate for each liter of milk delivered. This would of course have a positive multiplier effect on the economy. The farmers have more income available to spend and invest.
Roads: Contracts have been awarded and this time they have ensured and complied with strict procurement rules so that shady and/or bogus contractors are locked out. Money and all is available, but again the government has taken a back seat in terms of enforcing the contractors to do their jobs
KRA: Their revenue has increased by a huge margin!! This means better tax collection, sealing loopholes by which businesses used to evade tax.
Banks: Look at National Bank, KCB, Consolidated Bank, Co-operative Bank. All were loss making prior to 2002 and now?
Coffee industry-we are currently the third largest exporters of coffee in the world! can anyone remind me where we stood prior to 2002!???
Corruption: Any other major cases after Anglo leasing??

However, the police remain the worst public sector. They want to extort money and harass law abiding citizens for any small reasons!

Kenyans also enjoy living in a democracy: try criticizing the government in Zimbabwe...!!
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“Kenya has lots of natural and potential-look at the success of horticulture exports. Kenyan businesses and entrepreneurs need financing and help from Govt - corruption needs to be curbed. Also, Kenya needs to make use of technology to increase productivity and drive efficiency for growth - which also means IT/technology education needs to be part of the school curriculum.
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In my opinion it’s simple – each person does his job/duty in the most ideal and effective way that they can. Yes, it is true at times circumstances/conditions may be a constraint to working ideally...but hey...what's life without challenges...keep focusing on your target. For e.g....if a sweeper doesn’t sweep properly, garbage will pile...creating a dump, diseases, take up useful space. In the same way if a government does not govern properly (meaning they just eat, drive 4WDs and grow fat)....you have Kenya :) Kenya and Kenyans have the potential....that's where it ends sadly!
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Note: The following comments were in response to me putting up an “optimistic scenario” argument for Kenya
The targeted 10% growth that forms the Vision 2030 is indeed laudable. But will this be the kind of growth where the rich shall be richer and poor poorer....so the growth just pertains to barely 20% of the entire country?! I want to see overall growth...not the superficial kind that shows up in the international polls whilst there still remain joblessness, hunger, and disease.
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While I agree with a lot of the things, I also think that Kenya’s performance in things like manufacturing, agriculture is affected by the lack of infrastructure, especially a good transport system. Our roads are terrible. Look at the Mariakani/Mombasa road…..Mombasa is Kenya’s only port and yet the road that connects it to the main city is in a sad state. This affects business tremendously. The same goes for the Nairobi-Naivasha highway. Kenya has some of the best flower farms yet they lose out in terms of international competitiveness because of the high transport and maintenance costs of trucks using the Naivasha road to transport flowers
As for brain drain and emigration, it is true that a lot of people are returning to Kenya because of the huge prospects here. But it is also more a case of people who are not getting jobs overseas and are likely to get jobs here through their connections and the unfair recruitment process.
Security is a big issue in Kenya as well (not just because it is an election year), there is a lot of constant police harassment going on which is and will continue to eventually drive people to move out if it’s not curbed. As much as statistics show a rosy picture, there are so many thorns which affect the whole economy especially in terms of lost business and investment opportunities.
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Kenya's recent outlook of 10% GROWTH is quite ambitious. The effects of the growth even if any will be hardly felt. For example, if the US economy is growing by only a meager 2% in a given period, the effects will be felt because USA is already developed ,but for a country like KENYA 10% will not be felt as she is still a third world country, coming out from years of negative growth.
So far I haven’t seen any decline in poverty as there still rampant growth in crime all over the country. This indicates that a lot of the population is still poor and jobs are so scarce that they have to resolve to crime. Living standards are still below as the per capita income is still below a dollar a day. And, how do you reduce poverty when the inflation rate is so high. If the inflation is so high this means that there is need to increase interest rates thus increase cost of borrowing so as to contain inflation. This effect will be felt across the board as money will not be cheaply accessible thereby making the economy slowdown again and hampering growth. In terms of governance, I still think it is a pathetic government. Take the example of ministry of roadworks- it is are still sleeping on the job. Most of the upcountry roads are inaccessible and yet they assert they are doing the job. The funding that they receive is still being siphoned. That is where the economy growth sets in again; if most roads are bad then how will farmers transport their good to and fro? Kenya is an agricultural dependent country; if the farmers face these kinds of difficulties then how do you expect the economy to grow? In sum, the biggest worries for Kenya are:
  • BAD/DIRTY POLITICS
  • ENVIROMENTAL EFFECTS
  • FOOD INSECURITY
  • JOB INSECURITY
  • BUDGET IMBALANCES
  • CORRUPTION
  • POOR INFRACSTRUCTURE
  • HIGH INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
  • SECURITY ISSUES
I think to make the economy grow we first need to work out these problems facing kenya then forge ahead with the growth
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About banking/ICT....it seems again that there are extremes....we have M-banking, internet billing and the likes...where as we have manual ledgers and typewrites as well....so...any sane person can see that the technology is SO available, it's for industries/companies/individuals to take advantage of it if they want to be at par with the market (global and local)....yes, you do need the capital to invest in these expensive technologies...but in the long term the ROI will be well worth it!
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Nov 18, 2006

One more reason why I love Kenya!

Nationmedia.com Daily Nation NEWS 7th Wonder of the world: "7th Wonder of the world

Story by ERIC SHIMOLI
Publication Date: 11/18/2006
Kenya's tourism received a shot in the arm yesterday when a panel of experts and a major American television channel declared the annual Wildebeest migration one of the seven new wonders of the world.
Broadcasting live from the Maasai Mara to millions of American homes, the channel made the declaration during its breakfast show 'Good Morning America.'

Wildebeest cross a river during their migration from the Maasai Mara in Kenya to the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. The unique event has earned the animals and the two parks a distinction as one of the new wonders of the world. Photo/Camerapix
Every year, the wildebeest migrate from the Mara in Kenya to the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania, attracting thousands of tourists to witness the rare event in nature.
Yesterday's TV show, which featured a live interview with Kenya Wildlife Service director Julius Kipng'etich, was the culmination of six days during which panelists invited by the channel voted for new wonders of the world.
The new wonders are separate from the conventional Seven Wonders of the World known for centuries and which are classified by Unesco.
Coming at a time when the West, including the USA have been issuing travel advisories warning their citizens against travelling to East Africa over alleged security threats, the declaration and exposure during the live broadcast will be a major boost to the tourism industry in Kenya and Tanzania.
The panel of experts included an oceanographer, a tour expert, a range and wildlife management expert.
The Maasai Mara and Serengeti and the wildebeest migration were selected as one of the new wonders "

Nov 13, 2006

BBC NEWS | Business | Challenges facing Africa's entrepreneurs

This is yet another article that makes me all the more optimistic about Africa's prospects and Africa's future!
Vive l'afrique!!!



BBC NEWS Business Challenges facing Africa's entrepreneurs